Expires:No;;049882
FXUS65 KBYZ 092029
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
229 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy conditions today, with gusts of 30-50 mph expected.
Strongest gusts expected in the western foothills, gusts up to
55 mph. (expect strong crosswinds on I-90 and US-191).
- Very warm on Friday with record temperatures possible.
- Cooler and unsettled Saturday through Monday morning. (50-90%
chance of precipitation). Rain/snow lower elevations, snow in
the mountains. Gusty winds Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Thursday night...
Unstable northwest flow over the region and a shortwave passing
just to the north were bringing gusty to strong winds, and
isolated to scattered showers over most of the area. West to
northwest winds have gusted 35 to 50 mph, with a few locations in
the middle to upper 50s. Heading into the evening, expect the
winds to gradually decrease and showers to be more confined to the
far northeast. Showers in the vicinity of Miles City and Baker
will decrease into the overnight. Temperatures will drop into the
upper 20s and 30s tonight as winds decrease.
Thursday will bring warm and dry conditions, with overall light
winds as high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures in
the 60s to around 70 degrees can be expected, coolest over the
east. Low temperatures Thursday night will stay in the 40s for
most areas. STP
Friday through Wednesday...
Extended period will start out quite warm before a storm system
brings much cooler and unsettled conditions for the weekend into
early next week.
Models were in good agreement in showing WSW flow aloft on Friday.
A cold front was poised to move SSE thru KBIL by 00Z Saturday.
Ahead of the front, 850 mb temps will be near +20 degs C and
soundings will be inverted v with steep lapse rates. As a result,
temps will rise well into the 70s to around 80 degrees. NBM
probabilities of hitting 80 on Friday were highest in the valleys
across the area in the 60-90% range, with close to 100% chance for
KSHR. EFI shows .8-.9 for MaxT over the W, and southern Sheridan
County, suggesting an unusual event compared to model climate.
Checking record temps for the day showed that KBIL and KSHR will
be near their record highs.
Clusters showed varying strengths and positions of the next
Pacific trough over the Pacific NW on Sat., and differences
continued on Sunday when the trough moves through the region.
These differences lended uncertainty to the forecast. Scattered
showers will move into the forecast area W and N of KBIL Fri.
night behind the cold front. PoPs increase from W to E across the
area on Saturday. CAPE on model soundings supported including a
low chance of thunder in the afternoon. NBM had 90+ PoPs over the
W Sat. afternoon. Opted to go a little lower than this given the
forecast uncertainty. There were moderate probabilities of 0.25
inches or more of QPF on Saturday from KBIL W, and low to moderate
chances continued Sat. night. Precipitation will start to change
over to snow from KBIL W during the night as another cold front
crosses the area. Moderate to high PoPs will be over the area on
Sunday with a rain/snow mix. The probability of an inch of snow
was 30% in KLVM and less than 10% for KBIL and KSHR through 00Z
Monday. Sunday will also be windy with a strong pressure gradient
and cold advection over the area. There were low to moderate
probabilities of gusts of 39 mph or higher on Sunday. Highs Sunday
will be mainly in the 40s.
Cyclonic flow will be over the area behind the system on
Monday with lingering shower chances in the E. Model differences
continue with how the next ridge builds over the region on
Tuesday. There was lots of model spread Wednesday, ranging from
troughing to ridging. Temps will moderate through midweek. Stay
tuned to the forecast for any changes. Arthur
&&
.AVIATION...
In general, VFR will prevail through the period. Isolated to
scattered showers will decrease into the evening, lingering near
KMLS and KBHK through approximately 06z. Breezy W to NW winds
gusting 30-45 kts will gradually decrease into the evening.
Lighter winds can be expected for Thursday, with passing high
clouds. STP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/070 044/079 048/062 037/049 031/056 032/067 041/069
00/U 00/B 38/T 76/W 31/U 00/U 02/W
LVM 033/068 044/073 046/054 031/044 027/052 031/064 038/063
00/B 01/B 48/T 76/J 21/U 00/B 02/W
HDN 032/068 040/079 046/067 037/049 030/054 030/067 036/071
00/U 00/B 27/T 87/W 32/W 00/U 01/B
MLS 036/065 041/078 047/067 038/049 032/051 030/064 038/069
20/U 00/B 24/W 76/W 32/W 00/U 00/B
4BQ 037/064 041/081 048/068 039/049 033/050 030/064 038/070
00/U 00/B 02/W 64/W 32/J 00/U 01/B
BHK 032/062 037/077 044/063 036/049 029/048 026/059 033/066
20/U 00/B 12/W 75/W 42/W 00/U 00/B
SHR 032/064 037/079 043/068 033/048 027/050 026/064 035/068
10/U 00/B 16/W 66/J 32/W 00/U 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
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