Expires:No;;856265 FXUS64 KBMX 061033 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 533 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 527 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2025 - There is a 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms across Central Alabama through the afternoon hours. The threats include isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. - Heavy rainfall is expected and may lead to localized flooding as this storm system slows its movement as it pushes southeast across the area. A Flood Watch is in effect 6 pm Monday evening. - Frost and freeze conditions expected for the northern half of the area Tuesday morning and all of Central Alabama Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 530 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2025 The orientation of the main line will eventually begin to orient more ENE-WSW with time as the outflow keep sinking south. The main activity should reach the Birmingham metro area by 6-8 AM. Behind the main line, continuing rain and thunderstorms are anticipated, which may transition areas along I-20 to a flooding threat further into the morning. The system continues its slow trek to the east through the day. While a few segments within the line of showers and storms will be capable of severe, with all modes of severe possible. We may see an uptick in convection the later we get into the late morning and early afternoon as we see some heating ahead of the line. This system will not be moving at a fast clip, so flooding will likely become a concern through the day, with perhaps the highest totals between I-20 and I-85. Latest guidance places a large swath of 3 to 4 inches in this area through Monday afternoon. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 100 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2025 Behind this system, we are going to see some colder temperatures move into the region along with dry air. Right now we may see frost and freeze conditions expected for the northern half of the area Tuesday morning and all of Central Alabama Wednesday morning. So be ready to make preparations for any sensitive vegetation. The next rain maker will be Thursday afternoon into Friday with a passing cold front. The main dynamics for this system remains well to the north so severe weather should not be an issue. 16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2025 MVFR conditions will expand over the area ahead of the line of storms. At this time the showers and storms are in TCL and will be moving into BHM by 12z. EET/ASN/ANB by 12 to 13z. MGM will likely see the line work in by 15 to 16z. This will be an extremely slow system and will provide showers and storms for a prolonged time through the afternoon. Flooding may develop as well and could impact a few locations. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Heavy rain and storms will overspread across the area through Monday, with a Flood Watch now in effect through Monday evening. However, conditions will quickly mix back out behind the front, with MinRH values expected to fall back into the upper 20s to low 30s by Tuesday into Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 73 50 58 37 / 100 60 30 0 Anniston 74 53 58 38 / 100 70 50 0 Birmingham 73 52 57 41 / 100 60 30 0 Tuscaloosa 74 50 60 40 / 100 40 20 0 Calera 73 52 59 40 / 100 60 40 0 Auburn 77 58 61 42 / 100 100 80 10 Montgomery 79 56 60 42 / 100 90 70 10 Troy 80 57 60 42 / 90 100 90 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee- Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene- Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery- Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16