Expires:No;;901925 FXUS63 KBIS 070530 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1230 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions persist today, with below average temperatures east and near to above average temperatures west. - There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of rain showers Tuesday and Wednesday, along with windy conditions in the west and central Wednesday. - Above normal temperatures and breezy conditions favored for the second half of the week, especially beginning on Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Quiet weather is found across western and central North Dakota at the time of this early night update. A backdoor cold front continues to push south across the northern Plains, with high pressure bleeding in behind it across the International Border. With this, the high-based clouds that continue to linger across the forecast area are anticipated to diminish through the early morning. In terms of updates, have made some very minor tweaks to the sky grids to account for a greater westward extent of the clouds by blending in satellite observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains broadly on track. UPDATE Issued at 935 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 A quiet evening continues across western and central North Dakota. It will remain a little bit breezy across the north through night with winds mainly out of the northeast or east. No major changes were needed for this update. Just updated sky cover with the latest guidance and blended in the latest observations. UPDATE Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Visible satellite shows only a few higher clouds floating around out there across western and central North Dakota. No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Another mild day continues across western and central North Dakota today, with clear skies and somewhat light winds by North Dakota standards. High temperatures may make their way up into the 60s across the west, remaining generally in the upper 40s and 50s elsewhere. The Turtle Mountains may stay a bit cooler, with highs only in the upper 30s. Later tonight, a cold front associated with a trough across the Hudson Bay will drop through the state from the north, bringing about a colder night across mainly the central parts of the state eastward, with lows dropping into the mid teens. Model guidance has strengthened this cold front just a tad, and model soundings indicate a slightly higher potential for stronger winds, with northeasterly sustained winds increasing to around 20 mph with the frontal passage. The cold front will clear the area by early Monday morning, resulting in generally light winds across the area once more. There is a very weak signal for potential fog development in the James River Valley, especially with recently melted snow from today combined with weak easterly winds. The confidence in this is quite low however. The far west will remain breezy Monday, as the surface pressure gradient tightens between a high pressure center across the eastern half of the state and a low over southern Alberta. In the wake of the cold front, high temperatures in the east and the James River Valley will stay within the mid 30s, while the west will reach into the mid 50s. Upper level ridging will move across the area early Tuesday morning, before a weak shortwave across quickly passes through during the daytime hours, bringing about some low chances (roughly 20 to 40 percent) for light rain. Highs range from the mid 40s east to the lower 60s west, along with slightly breezy southerly winds. More substantial troughing from the west will begin to shift eastward across the Northern Plains overnight into Wednesday, flattening the aforementioned ridge and bringing about our next chances for rain showers. A weak surface low will dive southeastward across the state on Wednesday, providing enough synoptic scale lift for a swath of low chances (roughly 20 to 40 percent) for rain showers. With temperatures remaining warm (highs in the 50s), along with low instability and modestly steep near-surface lapse rates, some of these showers may be a bit more convective in nature, with a very low chance for a rumble of thunder here and there. If not, then some scattered showers are possible, with relatively low QPF totals across the board. Northwesterly winds will be a bit stronger as well with the presence of the surface low and the enhanced mixing near the surface. Beyond Wednesday, upper level ridging will take over once more, resulting in warmer temperatures and drier conditions. Highs will generally be in the 60s, potentially reaching the low 70s by Saturday. With increasingly strong mixing at the surface, each day will be breezy to windy in the afternoon and evening hours, which combined with drier weather, may bring about some concerns for fire weather. Friday seems to be the driest day when it comes to relative humidity, though the strongest winds appear to set up on Thursday, so we'll continue to keep an eye on how the forecast evolves for the second half of the week. Otherwise, warm and dry is the general idea heading into the weekend. Beyond that point, we may see another deep trough move through the area, bringing about chances for rain through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 VFR ceilings and visibility can be found at all terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. Scattered to broken high-based clouds can be found over the forecast area at the time of this update, but are anticipated to disperse as high pressure continues to builds in from across the International Border. Otherwise, there is a limited potential for patchy fog to develop overnight tonight, mainly across the northern James River Valley where snowpack lingers, including the terminal of KJMS, and over portions of the far southwest. The potential for visibility reductions remains far too low to include at any given TAF at this time. Northeasterly winds remain somewhat gusty at some terminals at this time, though are expected to diminish by the early morning hours. Winds will again become gusty through the late morning and afternoon period, all the while turning south southeasterly through the end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/ZH DISCUSSION...Besson AVIATION...Adam