Expires:No;;872954 FXUS61 KBTV 061724 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 124 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will taper off as surface front becomes stalled across southern New England, then eventually pushes offshore later tonight. Next low pressure system approaches our region from the Great Lakes tonight into Monday and Monday night. Additional showers, mix of rain and snow, are expected with that feature. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature below normal temperatures, but a return to seasonal normals is expected by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1224 PM EDT Sunday...Light rain showers continue to develop over northern areas this afternoon, in response to steepening low level lapse rates and a frontal boundary. Moisture will continue to decrease through the afternoon though, so don't anticipate anything more than scattered coverage, and rainfall amounts of just a hundredth or two. We're seeing breaks in the cloud cover as expected, and this has allowed temperatures to warm close to previously forecasted highs in a few spots, so have adjusted maximum temperatures accordingly, though overall still expect highs in the 40s to low 50s. West/northwest winds have been gusting to around 25 mph, and this will continue through the afternoon as well. Previous discussion...Scattered light rain showers have continued across our region overnight, and will continue into the morning hours before ending as a surface cold front will stall out over southern New England. A weak low will develop along this front and bring additional chances for showers to our southern zones Sunday night into Monday. By this afternoon we will see a decrease in cloud cover, but gusty winds. High temperatures will be near to seasonal normals, ranging from the low 40s to low 50s. Temperatures will drop into the 20s to lower 30s tonight, therefore precipitation reaching our southern zones should be in the form of snow showers. Then on Monday maximum temperatures will range through the 40s with increasing clouds and chances for showers, first across southern Vermont in the morning. Then increasing chances for showers from the west by late in the day Monday ahead of next approaching system. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...Strong upper level low in James Bay rotates strong shortwave across area Monday night-Tuesday with a developing wave overhead. Not the best storm track for widespread snow but given pretty good instability with the upper shortwave digging across our CWA think there will be some decent mountain snows, with some snow squalls especially in the north during Tuesday and it will become breezy and cold as the surface wave pulls away. Activity confined to the northern mountains and abates Tuesday night with high pressure moving in for Wednesday but it will still remain unseasonably cold but light winds. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...As just mentioned above...high pressure moves in for Wednesday but still in cool, cyclonic flow so temperatures not moderating too much with highs still unseasonably cool. Nothing too impactful in the latter periods of this forecast but still somewhat challenging as within the broad northern stream cyclonic flow there are two distinctly separate systems. First...another shortwave, associated with the upper low responsible for our winter weather on Tuesday rotates across Quebec/Ontario Thursday night-Friday. Meanwhile...another shortwave drops into the northern Plains and digs south into the lower Ms Rvr Vly and likely cuts off across SE CONUS late Friday into the weekend with a coastal along the eastern seaboard that may or may not impact our area until late weekend. However, ahead of that main system is a weaker leading shortwave that drops toward the Great Lakes and this potential interaction with the Canadian system will determine timing and extent of any precipitation for Thu-Fri. Attm...leaning toward late Thu-Thu ngt onset continuing through Friday and then will need to monitor coastal evolution for the weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...Mix of MVFR/VFR due to ceilings through 00z Mon, becoming VFR at all terminals thereafter. Exception will be at RUT, where light snow showers will bring MVFR ceilings and occasional visibility reductions to 4-6SM 06z-14z Mon. Otherwise, other than scattered light rain showers this afternoon dry conditions with ceilings AOA 10 kft from 03z Mon onward. W/NW winds 8 to 10 kt with gusts to around 20 kt through 00z Mon, becoming light and variable thereafter. Outlook... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Hastings/Neiles SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...Hastings/Neiles