Expires:No;;894147 FXUS63 KJKL 070203 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1003 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain and drizzle will impact eastern Kentucky through this evening before tapering off overnight. - A much colder air mass arrives behind a cold frontal passage this evening, and lingers until mid-week. - Near-freezing and/or sub-freezing temperatures are forecast for most places Monday night and Tuesday night. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Monday night where there is high confidence that temperatures will fall below 30 degrees for two or more hours. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1002 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2025 Showers persist over the area, and are becoming more numerous. It looks like the bulk of the area will probably pick up at least a hundredth of an inch, and mostly likely POPs have been used. Forecast sounding suggest the precip will taper to drizzle which will persist into Monday before tapering off. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 313 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2025 A cold front over far southeastern Kentucky will exit to the east and southeast this evening. Meanwhile, a southern stream trough that has moved little over the last several days and brought several days of heavy rain to most of Kentucky will finally move east across the Southeast U.S. by Monday evening, with eastern Kentucky coming under the influence of cyclonic northwesterly flow aloft to the south of a large upper low over the Great Lakes region Monday night. There is not much change to the current short-term forecast, with light rain and drizzle tapering off overnight, but low ceilings not improving until midday Monday at the earliest as a cold front approaches from the north. A brief round of showers is looking increasingly likely as the cold front passes, but the big story will be the reinforcing shot of cold air that will help bring widespread frost and sub-freezing temperatures to the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for all but far southeast Kentucky, where forecast lows are sub- freezing currently but do not currently meet the technical threshold of 2 or more hours below 30 degrees. How low temperatures fall in the far southeast counties will be dependent on how quickly cloud cover decreases through the early morning hours Tuesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 313 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2025 Chilly and dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday morning with surface high pressure in place, with widespread sub- freezing temperatures in the 20s likely warranting another Freeze Warning for the entirety of eastern and southeastern Kentucky. Warm advection returns Wednesday ahead of a shortwave passing the area Thursday bringing the next chance of rain. This is followed by a shortwave that amplifies and digs south-southeast from the center of the country to the northeastern Gulf of America by Friday, and likely bringing another round of unsettled weather and cooler conditions. Temperatures then gradually warm Saturday through the remainder of the weekend as precipitation chances end with the upper trough/low exiting to the east. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 821 PM EDT SUN APR 6 2025 Widespread IFR or worse conditions (due to fog and ceilings) are expected into the day on Monday. Showers this evening will give way to drizzle during the night. During the day on Monday, the drizzle will taper off from northwest to southeast and conditions will begin to improve as this happens. It will probably take from around 12Z to 00Z for improvement to VFR conditions to make it from the northwest corner of the forecast area in Fleming County southeast to the Virginia border. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>109-111- 112-114-116. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...CMC AVIATION...HAL