Expires:No;;872774 FXUS63 KMPX 061715 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1215 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures the next few days, with Monday being the coldest as highs struggle to reach 40 degrees. - Warmer temperatures (50s/60s) arrive Wednesday into next weekend. - Chances for rain Wednesday & Thursday, but no significant precipitation accumulation the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Today through Tuesday night... Clear skies persist across the region, allowing temperatures to fall steadily into the 20s and low 30s. It will be a chilly start to the morning but temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s by mid- afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will see some cloud cover move in, but it shouldn't impact the overall pleasant Spring day. We've opted to nudge winds higher as the mostly sunny skies promote deeper mixing this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 25 mph seem likely out of the W/WNW. This shouldn't prevent anyone from enjoying the pleasant weather this Sunday. However, an compact shortwave trough will approach tonight into Monday, driving another cold front through the area. This will usher in cooler temperatures to start the new work week & breezy northerly winds. Our further east Wisconsin counties may see some isolated snow showers with the frontal passage (Rusk/Chippewa/Eau Claire). Our lows will once again fall below freezing meaning another chilly start to Monday. Monday would be a great day if it were late February... but it's April. Breezy northerly winds between 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph expected. Our high temperatures will range from the mid 30s to 40 but our wind chills will struggle to "warm" above 30 Monday afternoon. By Monday night, the surface high will be centered over Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes, and this will promote efficient cooling with clear skies and light winds. Further, it's likely the coldest remaining night until November. Low temperatures will range from the mid teens to the mid 20s in the warm spot of the inner metro. Tuesday will mark the start of a gradual warm up as the sfc high pressure shift eastward. This sets the stage for southerly return flow & modest warm air advection to ramp up. Highs will range from the low 40s to low 50s, with mostly sunny conditions making it feel more pleasant. Wednesday through Sunday... The mid to late part of the week will see a pattern shift toward a milder, more Spring-like weather. Unfortunately, there are a few hang ups that will add some minor complexities to the forecast. Mid level flow will turn zonal, which will allow for rising heights/warmer temperatures to settle in. The first complication is on Wednesday when we see the return of cloud cover & rain chances across the region. NBM PoPs are in the 20-40 range - so we've opted to keep run with those. This scenario is difficult to highlight the uncertainty with where the precipitation tracks at this range. The concern is in our high temperatures as cloud cover & rain will prevent diurnal heating. As of right now - we've opted to go with temperatures in the 50s & 60s, but it should come to no surprise to see a few areas with highs in the 40s for those with showers & cloud cover. Thursday looks similar as another impulse moves across the area. This weak wave will bring another day of slight to chance PoPs for rain showers. The good news is our highs warm in the 50s and low 60s again. By Friday, mid and upper level ridging will begin to build over the central CONUS, signaling drier & warmer weather for the first half of the weekend. Friday's high temperatures could reach mid 60s, with some areas along the Buffalo ridge warming into the upper 60s with partly to mostly sunny skies. This warming trend will carry into Saturday, with highs in the mid 60s to upper 60s. A few locations across our SW will once again have the potential to warm into the low 70s. Winds will turn from the NW Friday to the SE on Saturday, which will help in the slightly warmer temperatures. This period should offer the best stretch of Spring conditions so far, but there is some uncertainty within guidance. There is a signal for another system to approaching us for the second half of the weekend (Saturday night into Sunday). The details of that will have to wait to get ironed out. The 00z suite varies greatly on the timing of this system but we'll likely see a return to more seasonable & cooler temperatures (50s). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 VFR through the period. Only cloud cover expected for all sites is passing FEW-SCT high cirrus, except for potentially EAU which is expected to have mid-level BKN ceilings tonight into Monday morning (also a small chance for rain/snow showers but chances are too low to include in the TAF at this time). Winds will pick up from the W and NW as a mainly dry cold front drops south across the region today. Speeds will increase to 10-15kts with gusts 20-25kts. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. WED...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind SE at 10-15 kts. THU...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind NW 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...PV