Expires:No;;872779 FXUS65 KCYS 061717 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1117 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Steady warmup and generally dry conditions through next week - Potential for high winds Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for the prone areas - Elevated fire weather conditions return midweek && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 329 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 An amplified upper level ridge is slowly pushing eastward over the Rocky Mountains and Intermountain West. This ridge will help filter dry air down to surface to limit any precipitation potential over the next few days. This will also consequently lower surface dewpoints and have some elevated fire weather concerns. Being on the outside periphery of the ridge today will also keep us in Northwesterly flow allowing some drier arctic air in the mid to upper levels to keep temperatures at the 700mb level between 0 and -3 degrees. This will translate to high temperatures in the upper 50's to potential low 60's east of I-25 and 40's to low 50's west of I-25. Mid level flow looks to be rather light this afternoon around 25 knots. Due to the subsident flow of the encroaching ridge, those winds should mix down for light and breezy conditions with gusts around 25 mph this afternoon and evening. The overnight temperature tonight will be fairly consistent with temperatures in the upper 20's as a weak cold front start to push south as an upper level trough slightly digs over the Northern Plains. Monday, temperatures will start to rise into the 60's with some potential isolated 70's tomorrow with the upper level ridge axis becoming more centered over the Intermountain west. The "cold front" is expected to be completely through the Nebraska Panhandle potentially limiting high temperatures into the upper 60's Monday afternoon. However, overnight temperatures are expected to be a little warmer as the flow transitions to a westerly component aiding in downslope flow throughout the day. Overnight temperatures will be a more palatable 30's and 40's compared to Sunday's upper 20's. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 329 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Very few changes made to next weeks forecast with all models staying in good agreement. The medium to long range looks warmer and pleasant, with periods of windy conditions possible on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. The only other minor forecast concern is daytime convection, which can sneak up on us starting in mid April. All models show the upper level ridge axis translating eastward as quasi-zonal flow sets up across the northern and central Rocky Mountain region. A potent Pacific "cold" front is forecast to push southeast across the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. Although somewhat cooler temperatures are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, they will still be near or slightly above normal even behind the front. All models indicate a 120kt jet max pushing east over Wyoming and remaining over the region through Wednesday night before nudging eastward. There is a good chance for at least windy conditions for most areas on Tuesday and especially Wednesday with good boundary layer mixing and 700mb winds between 40 to 50 knots. We're starting to get out of peak wind season, but some events do occur as we get into mid April. With good low level subsidence and a solid surface pressure gradient, increase winds to High Wind thresholds for Tuesday night and Wednesday. In-house wind guidance will likely struggle with this event since peak winds may occur during peak mixing in the late morning and early afternoon hours. High Wind headlines are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night with an even better chance Wednesday morning through early Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation chances are going to be tricky Tuesday and Wednesday with most model guidance indicating some convection potential, although deep convection is not expected at this time due to lower than average dewpoints and limited midlevel instability. Started adding some thunderstorm wording to the forecast north of Interstate 80 where the better moisture profiles and instability is located. However, most locations should remain dry outside of the mountains with only isolated to widely scattered showers possible. As we head into late week, all models remain in good agreement with lower than average ensemble spreads for temperatures, cloud cover, and winds. Therefore, blended forecast temperatures with the NBM and grand ensemble 75th percentile as we head into next weekend. Highs in the 70s are expected...and possibly low 80s over the lower elevations of eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska by Saturday afternoon. High confidence it will remain dry Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Quiet aviation forecast this afternoon as some high clouds drift across the area. Mostly sunny skies with diurnal wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts are expected throughout the afternoon, leading to VFR conditions. A backdoor front early Monday morning may dip into the KCDR area, leading to low CIGs and potentially decreased visibility in fog. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...SF