Expires:No;;901885 FXUS63 KDLH 070527 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow tonight into Monday morning for the Arrowhead and the South Shore snowbelt where a few inches are possible. - Northerly wind gusts to 40 mph are forecast this evening and early tonight in southern Cook County. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Shortwave troughing located over the MB/ON International Border this afternoon is beginning to drop a cold front from north to south through far northern Minnesota. Snow showers have been observed on webcams in the eastern Arrowhead with the radar reflectivity returns being shown on Canadian radar located near Thunder Bay radar. The forecast for this shortwave and associated cold front dropping southward tonight remains largely unchanged from the last 12 to 24 hours. An inch of new snowfall is possible (30-50% chance) in the eastern Arrowhead by this evening. As the front passes over the South Shore around mid- evening today, lake-enhanced snowfall along the limited frontal forcing brings a quick increase in snowfall for those lakeshore northwest Wisconsin counties. Snowfall of 1-2 inches is expected by Monday morning in Ashland County, and slightly higher amounts into the Iron County snowbelt of 2-4 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued this afternoon for Iron County beginning at 7 PM this evening and lasting until late morning Monday as more pure lake effect snow showers taper off in coverage as drier air moves overhead. Gusty winds are also likely (60-80% chance) immediately along and behind the frontal passage for the North Shore. Wind gusts to 40 mph are forecast in southern Cook County this evening. At this time a Wind Advisory is not expected to be needed, but a few downed tree branches may occur in those locations in southern Cook County. Cold air aloft down to -18 C lingers Monday daytime to create forecast surface temperatures in the upper-20s to mid-30s for all of the Northland Monday. As a ridge axis in the mid-levels and surface high pressure move overhead Monday night, the coldest air aloft down to -17 C keeps a presence in the Arrowhead and north-central Wisconsin. Radiational cooling conditions under the dry air and calm winds resulted in the Monday night/Tuesday early morning low temperatures to be further lowered using the 10th percentile of guidance in those areas. This creates a forecast right near-Zero F in the northern Arrowhead and single digits above zero in north-central Wisconsin. Single digits to teens above zero are also expected in much of the rest of northeast Minnesota. That dry airmass under nearly-calm winds Tuesday creates a day of forecast minimum relative humidities ranging 18 to 28 percent. Tuesday could be a day to watch for potential near- critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures begin to warm to normal Wednesday as southerly return flow sets up Tuesday night. Low pressure may (50-70% chance) move through the northern US Plains Wednesday to create a 20 to 40 percent chance of light rain and/or snow chances Wednesday. Temperatures then slowly further warm into the 50s and 60s into the start of next weekend as a largely dry weather pattern is favored. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Northerly winds are pouring in across the Northland in the wake of a cold front that went through yesterday afternoon. Most of the region is experiencing VFR conditions. However, Lake effect snow showers over NW WI have produced some pockets of MVFR. HYR is intermittently seeing snow with these degraded flight conditions. This is expected to clear up in the early morning hours. High pressure will move in tomorrow with widespread VFR conditions expected through the day. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 A passing cold front will drop from north to south this afternoon and evening to create a quick wind shift to northerly over all western waters within a few hour timespan. Behind the cold will be an increase in wind speeds to near-gale force for the South Shore. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect beginning 8 PM this evening, with the strongest wind gusts forecast from late evening to early overnight. There is a 50% chance of a few gale force gusts in the Outer Apostle Islands to near Saxon Harbor late this evening. From the short-duration in timing and lack of confidence in how widespread the gusts will be, all headlines remain as Small Craft Advisories for these Outer Apostle Islands and Saxon Harbor nearshore zones at this time. Winds decrease first Monday morning along the North Shore where the Small Crafts end first, with lingering elevated wave heights on the South Shore keeping those Advisories in effect at least through late morning tomorrow. Lighter northerly winds under 20 knots continue Monday afternoon and night. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 145>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...Britt MARINE...NLy