Expires:No;;887911
FXUS63 KFGF 062306
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
606 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  The probability of widespread weather impacts is low through
   the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

The surface pressure gradient is still pretty tight across the
FA with good 925-850mb cold advection. Therefore, expect the
breezy conditions to last through sunset before finally
beginning a slow decrease overnight. There are some cumulus
clouds across the FA, most of which should thin after sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...Synopsis...

Northerly flow is currently in place over our region between a large 
upper low near Hudson Bay and 570DM mid level ridging building into 
the Northern Rockies. The main result will be cooler temperatures 
while we remain under northerly flow (a bit below average for early 
April) before ridging slides east through midweek. A mid level wave 
rotates through the region on the back side of this ridging bringing 
light precipitation (less than 20% chance for 0.1" of rainfall and 
even lower probabilities for measurable snow). Behind that shortwave 
trough a stronger/broader ridge builds into Northern Plains with a 
more substantial warm up through next weekend. As that ridge slides 
east and begins to flatten, there  is a signal for west-southwest 
flow with larger spread in storm track/shortwave trough evolution 
between clusters. There is a general increase in measurable rainfall 
chances (20-30%) across the region, but details remain highly 
uncertain. Within a subset of guidance there is a signal for 
elevated instability that could support elevated thunderstorms 
Sunday, but machine learning based ensemble output does not support 
a severe risk in our area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... 
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Most of the cumulus clouds should fade away after dark, but
there are some thicker bands around the Lake of the Woods that
may drop southward this evening and cover KBJI as well. At this
point, they look to be VFR, or SCT-BKN050-070. Wind speeds will
drop again after dark, becoming pretty light by Monday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Godon