Expires:No;;865714
FXUS62 KKEY 061438
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1038 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Breezes are slowly but surely declining across the Florida Keys
this morning. Southeast breezes recorded along our offshore 
marine observation platforms are several knots lower than 24 hours
ago with moderate to fresh values prevailing. Otherwise,
conditions around the island chain are the same as yesterday with
current temperatures near 80 and dewpoints in the lower 70s. KBYX
radar notes a couple lines of light reflectivity across the Lower
and Upper Keys with a few embedded shallow showers pulsing within.
GOES 16 visible satellite imagery depicts some more thinner lines
of strato cu in the Florida Straits but otherwise mostly clear to
partly skies over the Keys. 

The surface high in the western North Atlantic has started its
easterly retreat thus causing our recent dip in gradient winds.
This will continue over the next 24 hours with breezes forecast to
slacken to gentle to moderate and shift to the southeast to south
through Monday. This morning's KKEY 12z sounding has lost its
zonal low level winds but is otherwise relatively unchanged from
yesterday with a moist low level profile capped by an inversion
and a large mass of dry air just above 850 mb. While enough to
support some shallow showers, decreasing surface winds will limit
confluent flow providing lift for convective initiation. Opted to
stick with near nil PoPs in the short term with no changes the
forecast required at this time. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Straits of Florida.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease in all
other coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, breezes 
will gradually slacken through this afternoon as a low pressure 
system deepens over the eastern United States. Shower chances will
increase next week when a frontal passage may occur sometime 
around Tuesday to Wednesday, with a slight chance of thunderstorms
on Tuesday. Breezes will freshen and veer to the northwest to 
north as the front approaches and passes through the Keys. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
VFR VIS and CIGS prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming 12Z TAF 
period. Low clouds are streaming from the southeast and a shallow 
line of low level clouds may move across the island terminals and 
cause short lived periods of MVFR CIGs. East to southeast near 
surface winds of 15 to 20 knots will gradually slacken during the 
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 2006, a dust devil on Stock Island crossed US-1 
twice, disrupting traffic and lasting about 20 minutes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  84  76  84  74 /   0  10  10  30 
Marathon  83  77  84  76 /   0  10  10  30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for 
     GMZ052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JAM
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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