Expires:No;;874605 FXUS63 KARX 061806 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 106 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Band of rain and snow showers drops south through mainly Wisconsin tonight (60% chance). Snow showers may briefly lead to localized reduced visibility, but little to no accumulation expected. - Colder and blustery on Monday with scattered daytime flurries/sprinkles. - Temperatures rebound Tuesday into next weekend. Rain chances (40-50%) return Wednesday-Thursday, especially south of I-90. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Another dry day with on tap today with southwest flow induced warm air advection yielding a noticeable bump in temperatures compared to Saturday. Highs are expected to rise into the 50s with a decent amount of sunshine despite a gradual increase in clouds, especially late this afternoon. Band of Rain and Snow Showers Drops South Tonight: Tonight a sharp shortwave trough will drop south through the western Great Lakes region, driving a strong cold front southward through the area. The strongest QG forcing with this trough will graze our far eastern forecast area, which is also where RAP guidance shows a deep layer of frontogenesis associated with the front. While this system has respectable forcing, it will be lacking in moisture. Forecast soundings only show a 2-3 hour window for deeper saturation from near the surface to about 600mb as the front pushes through. Precipitation should initially take the form of rain with low level temperatures still above freezing, but dynamic cooling behind the front will lead to a quick changeover to snow showers. These snow showers may briefly turn a little vigorous as the fgen band drops south through central Wisconsin, with the strongest lift becoming coincident with the dendritic growth zone for a short time. Several CAMs support this, but there is less agreement on how far west the precip band will extend. Greatest likelihood for any snow impacts will be east of the Mississippi River, particularly our eastern counties. But "impact" is an overstatement, as those areas only carry a 40-60% chance for greater than 0.1" snow accumulation. Reduced visibility would likely be the main story within the band of snow showers (if only for a short time), especially with the band being co-located with gustier northerly winds behind the front. Colder with Lingering Flurries and Sprinkles on Monday: Cyclonic flow and lingering cold air advection producing steep low level lapse rates on Monday will support scattered daytime flurries/sprinkles as the RAP/HRRR depict. With greater forcing just off to our east and drying low levels, opted to go with flurry/sprinkle chances during the day as opposed to anything measurable. It will definitely feel like a raw, blustery April day with highs only in the 30s to around 40 and gusty northerly winds. Warming Temperatures Rest of the Week: Temperatures will gradually rebound for Tuesday and beyond, with 60s likely by the weekend as an amplified upper ridge builds into the central CONUS. The next chance of precipitation arrives Wednesday into Thursday as a couple developing shortwave troughs drop through the region. While the main developing surface low and higher precip chances are still progged to track just south of our area, there remains a decent (~50%) chance for rain south of I-90, with lesser chances further north. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 104 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 VFR conditions should largely prevail over the next 24 hours with the exception of potential brief MVFR ceilings as a front sweeps southward through the area tonight. Gusts out of the north-northwest to around 25 knots are possible after the front arrives through the end of the period. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurz AVIATION...Ferguson