Expires:No;;872010 FXUS62 KMFL 061707 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 107 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Latest model guidance and satellite analyses show a large trough/low complex migrating across the C CONUS with an associates sfc frontal boundary moving into the SE states. Meanwhile, SoFlo remains under the influence of the western periphery of a deep high pressure system centered over the west Atlantic. Pressure gradients between these two systems will remain tight enough for keeping breezy and gusty winds across the area today. Latest MFL sounding data depict dry air above 850 mb, along with PWATs below 1 inch. Therefore, conditions should remain relatively dry and warm today with maybe a few quick isolated showers, mainly along the Atlantic coast. HRRR and LPMM composite continue to suggest some potential for a few quick showers through the early evening hours around the Lake Okeechobee region due to confluent flow. Overnight lows will be in the middle 60s around the lake, to lower 70s near the coasts. Ensemble and global model scenarios show fair agreement in bringing the aforementioned frontal boundary into northern Florida by Monday, gradually approaching SoFlo during the evening hours. Winds will veer to the south or even southwest ahead of the approaching front, with moisture advection increasing across the area. Higher dew points will translate in warmer conditions with afternoon highs climbing into the low-mid 90s over interior areas, and mid-upper 80s near the coasts. Most of the area should remain dry, although some late day showers can't be ruled out along the Gulf coast and areas east of the lake. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Tuesday and Tuesday night will be the most active part of the extended period. Cold front will very slowly cross South FL during the day on Tuesday, as the upper level trough is well displaced to the west and therefore isn't much to push the front along. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage, heating and instability could help enhance some of the convection, especially over the far southern portion of the peninsula. While the better dynamics will be across northern FL, wouldn't be surprised to see a few storms on the stronger side. QPF totals area-wide aren't impressive, with NBM mean of 0.5 to 0.75 inches, however the 75th percentile is over 1 inch for much of the area, so the potential is certainly there for locally higher amounts. Regardless, the rainfall will be a welcome sight considering the ongoing drought situation. While the front should be clear of south FL by late in the day Tuesday, lingering moisture will hang around until early Wednesday morning when the trough axis finally crosses the area and drier air gets pulled into the area. Outside of some coastal showers, mainly dry conditions will return for the remainder of the work week. Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be right around climatological norms with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temps will be in the 50s/60s. As the flow becomes more easterly late in the week, temperatures will moderate back to above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 VFR expected to prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals with breezy SE winds decreasing to around 10kt this evening. Some periods of bkn cigs may develop Monday afternoon, along with winds becoming breezy/gusty, and shift to a more S/SW flow in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Breezy southeasterly winds continue but gradually decreasing to below advisory levels this evening. Small craft should continue to exercise caution over the Atlantic waters as winds continue to subside through Sunday. Seas over the Atlantic waters will range from 3 to 5 feet through the weekend, while the Gulf waters will be in the 2 to 4 feet range. && .BEACHES... Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The high risk of rip currents is expected to expire this evening as wind speeds along the Atlantic coastline gradually decreases as winds shift southerly and southwesterly through Monday, with a potential increase along the Gulf beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 87 73 85 / 10 10 30 70 West Kendall 70 89 71 87 / 10 10 30 70 Opa-Locka 71 89 72 86 / 10 10 30 70 Homestead 72 86 72 85 / 0 10 30 60 Fort Lauderdale 73 86 72 83 / 10 10 30 70 N Ft Lauderdale 73 86 72 83 / 10 10 30 70 Pembroke Pines 74 91 73 87 / 10 10 30 70 West Palm Beach 71 88 71 82 / 10 20 40 70 Boca Raton 72 88 71 84 / 10 20 40 70 Naples 71 87 71 78 / 10 10 50 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACHES...17 LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...17