Expires:No;;888733 FXUS64 KOUN 062322 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 622 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 543 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 - Freeze Warning is in effect tonight into tomorrow morning - Mild and dry conditions are expected this coming work week && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The mid-level trough axis continues to progress across the FA into this evening and expect gradual clearing to occur behind this axis. We expect mostly clear skies across the area by around mid- night. Meanwhile, a 1027MB surface high currently centered over west Texas progresses across central Texas tonight as the ridge expands over the southern plains allowing for light and variable winds tonight. With clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling is forecast to drop air temperatures to near 32 deg F, though temperature minimums could be non-uniform and highly variable across the FA. Therefore, the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for late tonight into Monday morning. Freeze and frost conditions could damage sensitive and unprotected vegetation. Looking at model ensembles, this could very well be the last freeze of the season. Thompson && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Pleasantly tranquil and warmer conditions return on Monday, with sunny skies and light north winds as a surface high passes over north-central Texas. A backdoor front, undergoing frontolysis, is anticipated to enter north-central Oklahoma late Monday and parts of northwest and east-central Oklahoma by Tuesday morning. FROPA will be most evident by the increase in dew point temperatures and winds shift to the N/NE. Low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning will be mainly in the upper 30's and low 40's. However, temperatures could be a few degrees colder over northern Oklahoma with the weak, postfrontal CAA. As a northern stream jet max streams across the Pacific Northwest, and along the northern periphery of the upper ridge, a surface trough develops over the northern plains. The LLTR shifts eastward over the western third of the FA on Tuesday. This sharpening low-level thermal gradient along with the tightening pressure gradient will yield breezy and warm conditions on Tuesday - especially over western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. High temperatures will range from the low-70's (southeastern and central Oklahoma) to the upper-70's (west) and wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible (northwest). Probabilities of wind gusts reaching advisory criteria are low (less than 40 percent). Strong WAA will lead warmer low temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (upper-40's to mid-50's). Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Saturday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The northern stream jet max and associated trough turn southeastward and push a cold front into Oklahoma on Wednesday, with latest guidance trending a bit earlier with the next cold front. Despite the FROPA, mild temperatures are forecast through the rest of the period. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80's over western north Texas into southwest Oklahoma ahead of the front on Wednesday, fall into the 70's end of he week, with much warmer conditions prog'd for next Saturday. No precipitation is in the forecast, and due to the breezy winds on Tuesday, elevated fire weather potential exists over northwest Oklahoma. Thompson && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 All of our terminals should remain under VFR conditions through the forecast period. Surface winds will go light and variable after 01Z becoming northwest at 5-10 kts after 16Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 32 65 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 31 67 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 33 67 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 29 68 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 30 67 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 34 65 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for OKZ004>048- 050>052. TX...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...01 SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...68