Expires:No;;869859 FXUS63 KLBF 061610 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures remain near to above average (60s to 70s) through much of the week, along with dry conditions. The exception to this is Tuesday and Wednesday, where chances (20-30%) of light rain exist near and north of Highway 2. - Some increase in fire weather concerns is expected into midweek, amid warm, dry, and breezy conditions. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Benign weather prevails again today across the area, with amplifying upper level ridging over the western CONUS the dominant feature aloft. Upstream, an upper shortwave will drop southward into the Upper Midwest by this evening, with an associated surface low pushing across the Great Lakes tonight. This drags a surface trough through the area this afternoon, with west-northwesterly flow developing in its wake. Broad downslope warm advection will boost highs as much as 10 to 15 degrees area wide, into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Enough dry air remains in place to push humidity values into the teens this afternoon, though light winds will largely temper any fire weather concerns today. By tonight, the aforementioned surface low will continue to trek eastward across the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front pushing into north central Nebraska near Midnight. Stout surface high pressure will spill southward out of Manitoba in the wake of this front, leading to surface pressure rises on the order of 2mb/hr with frontal passage. This should be enough to promote a period of gusty north winds tonight immediately behind the frontal boundary, around 20 to 30 miles per hour for areas generally east of HWY 83. The cold front will then back westward into the Sandhills, but only nearing the HWY 83 corridor. Unfortunately, this lends to a rather low confidence high temperature forecast for tomorrow afternoon. On the cool side of the boundary across north central Nebraska, highs will struggle to climb out of the 40s. Further southwest, for areas west of HWY 61, confidence is higher in the surface front remaining off to the northeast. Here highs look to climb into the low to middle 60s. It is between these areas (near HWY 83) where the positioning of the backdoor cool front will be toughest to pin down for now. In fact, this evening's guidance suite paints 25-75th percentile temperature spreads on the order of 10 to 15F along HWY 83 tomorrow, lending very little confidence in current forecasted highs. Adjustments will likely be needed as the exact placement of the surface boundary becomes more clear. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Upper ridging will continue to dominate the synoptic regime as we head into next week, before beginning to breakdown late Tuesday afternoon. This is in response to an upper shortwave ejecting eastward across the International Border, reaching North Dakota by Wednesday morning. A more subtle shortwave will eject east across the Rockies by Tuesday evening, with an associated surface low progged to eject into the Sandhills. It is with this surface low that could lead to widely scattered showers Tuesday evening into Wednesday north of HWY 2. Though confidence in location of any precipitation remains very low for now, any accumulations look to remain light (generally <0.1"). Temperatures briefly return to average (lower 60s) in the wake of this system on Thursday, before upper ridging again begins to amplify across the western CONUS late week. This looks to again boost highs well above average and lead to persistent dry conditions. Will have to monitor for increasing fire weather concerns late week with this in mind, though recent rainfall could lead to green up and temper any threat. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 High confidence in VFR conditions through the first half of the valid period. Confidence wanes overnight as a cold front moves down from the northeast. Expect little more than some mid/high clouds over central and western Nebraska through today with light winds under 10kt veering from westerly to northwesterly as high pressure over the area pushes off to the southeast. A weak backdoor front will move into Nebraska from the northeast after Midnight. Winds will shift around to the northeast with passage of the front but the wind environment is not very robust so not expecting any significant gusts with or behind the front. The latest meso guidance is showing potential for a band of low clouds to surge in behind the front. The southward extent of this cloudiness looks to stop short of KLBF but KVTN could be impacted. Probabilistic guidance is showing a 30 to 50 percent chance for MVFR/IFR CIGs in the vicinity of KVTN by daybreak Monday with gradual dissipation through Monday morning. Given this low probability will keep mention of low clouds SCT for now and reevaluate potential for sub VFR conditions as later guidance becomes available. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...MBS