Expires:No;;870739 FXUS63 KOAX 061641 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1141 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant weather continues for today with highs in the mid 50s to near 60F under light winds. - Cold front moves through by daybreak Monday with a few clouds. Breezy 15-20 mph winds with gusts up to 25 mph are expected Monday morning. Winds ease by Monday evening. - Temperatures warm for Tuesday and Wednesday and again into the weekend. PoP chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday (15-30%) and again Thursday (15-20%). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday Night/ Sfc high continues to sit over Nebraska per 8z RAP objective analysis resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds across the OAX forecast area. The clear skies and light winds are leading to effective radiational cooling as temperatures have reached the low to mid 20s north to around 30F along and south of I-80 as of 8z. The pleasant conditions will continue into the daytime hours today as highs reach the mid 50s to near 60F (almost 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday) with only some mid to high level clouds and light westerly winds. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s north to mid 30s south. Sunday evening into early Monday morning will see the 500 mb southwest US longwave trough merge with a closed 500 mb Canadian low currently over the Ontario/Hudson Bay area. As the two features merge, a shortwave and associated vorticity lobe ejects from the parent Canadian low and swings southward toward eastern Minnesota/Wisconsin. This feature induces an 850 mb low across the Wisconsin/Great Lakes area by early Monday morning, and will drag its associated baroclinic zone/sfc cold front over the forecast area through daybreak Monday. Moisture still appears very limited with this disturbance as does forcing for ascent, so only expecting a few clouds. Winds will be on the increase though, primarily behind the front, with sustained north northeasterly winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph through about the late morning/noon hour. Highs Monday will be cooler due to the CAA behind the front, thus only reaching the upper 40s north to mid 50s along and south of I-80. Winds ease by Monday morning to 10 mph or less as sfc ridging moves southward behind the front. Lows Monday night will be in the mid to upper 20s. .LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/ 1000-500 mb thermal ridging will amplify across western portions of the Central and Northern Plains on Tuesday and move across the forecast area by Wednesday before breaking down. This will result in highs reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s for Tuesday and mid 60s to low 70s by Wednesday. PoP chances return to the forecast Tuesday evening into Wednesday (15-30% chance) as a shortwave ejects from the Rockies area and induces a sfc low. Thursday will see a secondary wave/impulse move through resulting in some light PoPs (15- 20% chance) across our far east, although there is some model uncertainty regarding how far westward these PoPs could move. Highs Thursday cool slightly to the mid to upper 60s. The warming trend will continue into the upcoming weekend as a second, more potent thermal ridge builds over the western CONUS on Friday. Highs Saturday and into the weekend could reach the mid 70s to around 80F, and these model trends would agree heavily with current CPC 6-10 day temperature outlooks which show at least 70 to 80% of the forecast area seeing above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Quiet weather leaves aviation weather with VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Light westerly winds become northerly overnight as a cold front slips north to south. The winds will become stronger on Monday behind the front at about 10-15 knots with afternoon gusts expected to grow even stronger (15-25 kts). && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo/Mead AVIATION...Nicolaisen