Expires:No;;873855 FXUS62 KFFC 061752 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 152 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 - Cold front will bring storms to the area Today. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is in effect for north and parts of west central Georgia. Primary concerns are damaging winds and a quick spin up tornado or two. - A Flood Watch is in effect for north and portions of west and central Georgia from 8 am to Sunday to 8pm Monday. Rainfall of 2-4" with isolated amounts up to 5" will be possible. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) is in effect for flash flood potential. Current radar loop shows the line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the approaching frontal boundary has moved into NW GA. We are seeing severe storms along this line and expect it to continue moving slowly SE through Monday. The Bermuda ridge that has blocked this boundary from moving into the area over the past few days is breaking down and pushing east. The line will push SE and stall in and around the ATL/AHN metro areas Today/Tonight. The main line of storms finally pushes south and east of the area Monday as the upper level forcing catches up to the line and swings the actual front through. As for the severe weather Today. The limiting factor appears to be the lack of instability, even though the system will be laying across the area during peak daytime heating. The probability of seeing greater than 500 J/kg of instability is 50% or greater generally along and south of I-20. Any probabilities of greater than 1000 J/kg are limited to only west central Georgia. This is due to the positively tilted trough approaching the area, keeping upper levels warm. Instability will be difficult to achieve even in the afternoon heating, and ongoing convective blow off may limit daytime heating near the slowly moving line of storms. There is a LLJ which helps shear profiles and some possible rotation with some stronger storms. The greatest threat appears to be damaging winds and the threat for some QLCS and isolated small tornados. As for the flooding concerns. Latest QPF guidance shows a nice 2-4" swath of 2 day precip amounts across most of the area. This meshes well with the expected stalling of the main line and repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. This is also in line with 90th percentile showing widespread 4-5" across much of metro Atlanta. This amount of rainfall will definitely lead to flooding and flash flooding concerns if it does come to fruition. All this will be very highly dependent on exactly where the boundary stalls and if it stalls at all. If the boundary stalls a bit further south where the soils can handle higher rainfall amounts this may not be as great a concern. Have continued and extended the Flood Watch to include all of north GA along with portions of central and west GA. The Flood watch goes through 00z Tue. 01 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 349 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 The long term period will begin on Monday night with the cold front clearing the forecast area to the southeast. Showers will remain in portions of east and central Georgia immediately behind the front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the far southeast as well, but are expected to come to an end by midnight. Northwesterly winds on the back side of the front will usher in a noticeably cooler airmass. Low temperatures on Tuesday will start the morning in the upper 30s to low 40s in north Georgia and mid 40s in central Georgia. Advancing surface high pressure to the northwest of the forecast area will promote clear skies and benign weather through midweek. Highs on Tuesday range from 7-13 degrees below climatological normals, ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s in north Georgia and mid to upper 60s in central Georgia -- quite the contrast from our recent run of warm temperatures. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning of the week as reinforcing colder air moves into the area from the north. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 30s along and north of the Atlanta metro area. Elsewhere in north Georgia, temperatures in the mid 30s could warrant the need for a Frost Advisory, as well. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Wednesday as the surface high moves east of the area and southerly low level flow returns. Highs in the afternoon will rise into the mid 60s to low 70s, with slightly cooler temperatures in the higher elevations of the far northeast. On Thursday a 500 mb trough will swing through the Midwest, extending into the Tennessee Valley region by the end of the day. A cold front will trail from the associated surface low, with scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming possible across far north Georgia during by early Thursday afternoon. As the trough continues to deepen Thursday night into Friday, it will advance the front and associated precipitation southward through the area. King && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Strong winds currently impacting airport with convection moving through. Thunder chances will continue well into the evening within moderate to heavy rain behind main line. Brief shift to NE possible over next hour or so before winds expected to return to SSE at 8-13 kts with higher gusts. RA will impact airport through evening into overnight. Cigs will drop overnight to be steady MVFR, with IFR chances by early tomorrow. Rain should come to an end by the afternoon, but cigs remain through end of TAF period. Vsby impacts expected to be MVFR within rain (lower if heavier convection passes overhead). //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium in cigs (could see faster drop to IFR), high all others. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 82 60 66 42 / 90 90 80 10 Atlanta 78 58 64 43 / 100 100 70 10 Blairsville 70 53 61 35 / 100 90 60 0 Cartersville 76 54 63 39 / 100 80 50 0 Columbus 83 59 66 43 / 80 90 90 10 Gainesville 78 59 65 43 / 100 90 70 10 Macon 86 62 70 44 / 50 70 90 30 Rome 75 53 63 39 / 90 70 30 0 Peachtree City 81 57 65 41 / 100 100 80 10 Vidalia 89 69 79 49 / 0 10 90 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday evening for GAZ001>009-011>016- 019>025-027-030>038-041>050-052>060-066>071-078-079-089-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Lusk