Expires:No;;872775 FXUS63 KTOP 061716 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1216 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near and below freezing temperatures set up early this morning mainly along and north of I-70. More widespread freezing temperatures setup area-wide tomorrow morning (Monday) and again Tuesday morning. Therefore, a Freeze Watch has been issued for situational awareness for anyone trying to take advantage of an early growing season due to previously warm stretches having already occurred. - Warming trend through sets up this week with highs reaching the 60s, 70s and possibly low 80s next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Early this morning, a deep positively tilted trough continues to lift out of the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. The forecast area remains on the northwestern side of the weak deformation zone. Sub-cloud dry air depth is sufficient to preclude much in the way of any meaningful precipitation reaching the ground. However, there may be a brief window for a few hours this morning where a more enhanced band of light rain/snow mix or light snow may develop generally southeast of I-35. Probabilities for measurable precipitation remain very low. Overall, even if snow does fall, no significant impacts are expected and melting would occur on contact with the ground or soon after. The question for the period appears to revolve around freezing temperatures for the next couple of nights as a surface ridge builds into the area. Generally light to calm winds with mostly clear conditions appear to be likely the next couple of nights. Low temperatures are forecast to fall to 33 degrees and below into the low 30s and upper 20s from south to north across the area. The most recent MRCC Vegetation Impact data suggest that the forecast area has a mixed susceptibility rating. Therefore, have coordinated with surrounding offices to issue at least a Freeze Watch in anticipation that those taking advantage of previous warm temperature stretches have at least some growing underway. Those who have begun growing will want to be especially aware of several hours of near or sub-freezing overnight lows across a widespread area for the next couple of nights/early morning time frames. By Wednesday into Thursday, northwest flow brings a clipper system through the northern Plains which may shift south into portions of the mid-MS Valley region. Overall, ensemble data suggest that a trace to less than a tenth of an inch of light rain may setup over far northeastern into far east-central areas. Warm temperatures continue to trend warmer through the week into next weekend. Could see 70s and 80s especially by the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 VFR conditions prevail. North winds this afternoon become west- southwesterly this evening and overnight before increasing from the north as a cold front passes Monday morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023- KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040- KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022- KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039- KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059. && $$ DISCUSSION...Drake AVIATION...Flanagan