Expires:No;;889247 FXUS65 KPUB 062331 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 531 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonable weather next 24 hours. - Warmer and drier with fire danger increasing into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Currently... Besides for some passing thin cirrus here and there, skies were clear across the region with ambient temps in the 40s and 50s across the plains and around 40 in the valleys. Winds were light with a generally northerly drift. Next 24 hours... Some bands of high clouds will develop and move across the region, otherwise skies are going to be clear the next 24 hours. Winds are generally going to be light and will be primarily diurnally driven tonight and tomorrow. Min temps will fall into the 25 to 30F range plains with tens in the valleys, with max temps around seasonable values all areas tomorrow afternoon. \/Hodanish && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Passing shortwave to the north will cut down the upper ridge Monday night and Tuesday with lee troughing and increasing winds aloft across CO. Temperatures continue to warm with highs expected to be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Main concern will be the potential for gusty winds in the gap flow regions of the I-25 corridor Tue afternoon. Given low humidity values, critical fire weather conditions will be elevated for these areas. Although not resolved by HREF quite yet, NAMNest does show some marginal wind gusts across eastern Fremont, northwest Pueblo and southwest El Paso Counties as well as Huerfano county. Given recent snowfall (still evident in satellite) fuels over Huerfano county may not be sufficiently receptive to fire, and areal coverage for critical fire weather conditions don't look widespread enough across the Arkansas River Valley/I-25 corridor counties. So no Fire Weather Watches look necessary yet. Wednesday's critical fire weather potential is still uncertain for some areas. Stronger northwest flow aloft suggests a higher confidence for the San Luis Valley where breezy northwest winds will mix down in the afternoon and fuels are critically dry. ALS did get some snow out of this last event, but should see sufficient drying by then for fuels to be receptive, and most of the valley did not get much snow from this last event. A cold front backdoors into the southeast plains on Wednesday and how far west this pushes will determine if and/or where critical fire weather conditions will set up along the I-25 corridor. Models look faster than those yesterday, and although no precipitation is expected with it, humidity values may stay above critical thresholds across the eastern plains to the east of the front. Locations to watch will be the southern I-25 corridor where westerly winds may spread into the adjacent lower elevations during the afternoon as the frontal boundary stalls to the east. It's too soon to have confidence in these detail just yet, so stay tuned. Temperatures on Thursday will cool off around 5 degrees across the plains with lighter winds behind the front, but high temperatures will still be above normal. Then another upper ridge translates in from the west on Friday and gets shunted eastward as another upper trough moves into the western U.S for the weekend. Warming along with increasing southwest flow aloft next weekend will result in potential critical fire weather days Saturday and Sunday as temperatures warm into the 80s across the plains, 70s across the valleys and 50s and 60s for the mountains and afternoon winds increase both days. -KT && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025 VFR conditions at all three TAF sites through the period. Winds will remain gusty at KCOS and KPUB for the next couple of hours, and then should diminish throughout the evening. There will also be a slight chance for some fog to develop at KALS tomorrow morning. Some guidance shows conditions favorable for fog, and others do not. Will certainly continue to monitor for the next TAF issuance. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...CLOUSE