Expires:No;;873273
FXUS63 KUNR 061732
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1132 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low impact weather through most of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 148 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Current water vapor imagery depicts mid level moisture associated
with a weak shortwave crossing the Northern Plains. A band of 
high clouds stretches from southwestern into central SD. 
Otherwise, it's another calm and chilly night across western SD 
and northeastern WY. This rather benign pattern will continue 
through today into tomorrow as an upper level ridge persists over 
the region. Highs today will reach into the upper 50s into the low
60s with some breezy northwest winds developing over northwestern
SD. Backdoor cool front nudges into central SD late Sunday into 
early Monday. Other than the resultant upslope flow and low level 
moisture supporting patchy fog/low stratus across the western SD 
plains early Monday morning, not anticipating much out of this 
front. Temperatures Monday will range from the mid 60s across 
northeastern WY and southwestern SD to the upper 40s across 
northwestern into south central SD.

Upper level shortwave will flatten out the ridge and drop into 
the Northern Plains on Tue/Wed, bringing the next chances for 
precip to the region. Most of the moisture will have been squeezed
out of this system by the time it makes it from the PNW to here, 
so not expecting a huge rain maker. LREF probs paint 70-100% 
chances for at least measurable (0.01") precip over the CWA. 
However, probs for 0.1+" QPF drop off with 20-40% probs over the 
western SD plains, and 50-70% across northeastern WY, the northern
Black Hills, and far western SD. Weak buoyancy (250-500 J/kg SB 
CAPE per NAM) Tuesday afternoon could support some thunder before 
the front pushes through.

Deterministic guidance in good consensus of ridge building back 
over the region by Thur/Fri, bringing warmer and above average 
temperatures back into the region by Sat/Sun. GEFS/GEPS/ENS all 
depict 70-90% probs of 2 meter temp anomalies of 10+F by next 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1120 AM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Predominately VFR conditions will prevail through the valid TAF
period. There is a chance for some FG to impact the KRAP terminal
by 12z. Added VCFG to the TAF site at 12z with LIFR conditions and
FG developing by 13z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...Woodward