Expires:No;;897789
FXUS63 KGLD 070325
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
925 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures are expected 
  through the work week.

- An active, unsettled weather pattern will return this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Troughing /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the central CONUS will be 
supplanted by an upper level ridge progressing eastward across 
the Rockies and High Plains Mon-Tue. Expect dry conditions and a
warming trend. Near-critical fire weather conditions are 
possible over portions of the area Tuesday afternoon, when deep 
vertical mixing could yield 15-25 mph westerly winds. 
Increasing upper level cloud cover (possibly a thick veil of 
orographically enhanced cirrus) may affect both insolation and 
vertical mixing, lending additional uncertainty to an already 
marginal setup.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Overview: Cyclonic shear vorticity on the northern periphery of
a pronounced westerly upper level jet.. extending eastward from
the northern Pacific (35N 155W, or ~1000 mi north of Hawaii) to
the central-northern Rockies (~2500 mi).. will rapidly 
erode/undercut the central CONUS ridge late Tue-Tue night. A 
transition to NW flow aloft (Wed night-Thu) and N flow aloft 
(Fri), will follow.. as the Tri-State area finds itself situated
between an amplifying western CONUS ridge and an amplifying 
eastern CONUS trough. Long range guidance suggests that the 
aforementioned ridge will shift eastward across the central 
CONUS this weekend.. as an upper level trough amplifies along 
the Pacific Coast and Intermountain West.

Wednesday: Expect dry conditions and above average 
temperatures. Guidance indicates that breezy WNW winds may 
develop during the afternoon.. in advance of a modest cold 
frontal passage (and northerly wind shift) late Wed evening (or 
Wed night). Low confidence in wind magnitude and timing of 
frontal passage at this range. Critical fire weather conditions 
are possible over portions of the area.

Thursday: Expect dry conditions and cooler (albeit near- 
average) temperatures in the wake of a modest cold frontal 
passage accompanying the transition to NW flow aloft Wed eve- 
night.

Friday: Expect dry conditions and a warming trend as the 
pronounced western CONUS ridge progresses eastward across the 
Rockies and High Plains.

Saturday-Sunday: Active weather (in some form) will return to 
the Tri-State area in this period. Expect dry conditions, a 
warming trend and strengthening wind, on Saturday.. as the upper
level ridge departs (progressing east toward the MS River 
Valley), cyclonic flow aloft envelopes the western CONUS.. and 
low-level southerly flow strengthens on the eastern periphery of
a deepening lee trough/cyclone. Low confidence in forecast 
specifics at this range. At present, critical fire weather 
appears to be the primary hazard.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... 
Issued at 925 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025

KGLD...VFR conditions will continue through the period. A
southwesterly wind at speeds under 10kts at taf issuance will
veer to the west at similar speeds around 10kts then northwest
at similar speeds around 15z becoming light and variable from
19z-01z. After 02z, winds establish a southeasterly component at
speeds up to 10kts. 

KMCK...VFR conditions will continue through the taf period. A
light west-northwest wind at taf issuance will veer to the north
at similar speeds around 14z, becoming light and variable from
18z-23z. After 00z, winds establish a southeasterly component at
speeds up to 10kts. 

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...99