Expires:No;;874684 FXUS63 KSGF 061808 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 108 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing areal and river flooding will continue with overly saturated soils from the 1 to 7+" of rain over the last few days. - An upper low will lift northeast into the area and bring a mix of rain and snow this morning and early afternoon. A dusting on grassy areas will be possible, mainly west of US 65. - Sub freezing temperatures are expected the next couple of nights. A freeze warning is in effect for the entire area tonight into Monday morning and a freeze watch for the entire area Monday night into Tuesday morning. - Warming back into the 70s by the middle to end of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show split flow over the CONUS with an upper low over Hudson Bay and a trough swinging through Ontario into Quebec and the Great Lakes region in the U.S. The slow moving southern stream low which has been responsible for all the rain we have received the past few days was still to our southwest over western OK. A ridge axis over the western U.S. was being nudged eastward by a storm system moving into the Pacific northwest. Thankfully, the moisture axis has shifted to our southeast along with the majority of the rainfall. We are getting some showers developing northwest of the I-44 corridor with the approach of the upper wave. Temperatures were cool across the area in the upper 30s to low 40s. Rest of tonight into Sunday: The upper wave will continue to lift northeast into the area today and precipitation will continue to expand over the area. Amounts will be on the light side, generally a quarter inch or less through the remainder of the event. Temperatures aloft will continue to cool and as temperatures drop into the mid 30s this morning, the rain is expected to mix with and/or change to light snow. Surface temperatures will remain above freeze and we are not expecting any impacts from the snow, with a dusting potential on grassy and elevated surfaces. Roads should remain warm enough to prevent accumulations. Tonight: High pressure will build into the region with clearing taking place across the area and winds diminishing. Temperatures should drop below freezing across the area and into the mid to upper 20s for many locations across the CWA. We have upgraded the previously issued freeze watch to a freeze warning for tonight into Monday morning. Monday: Drier air will continue to push into the area with the high pressure and we'll get to see the sun for the first time in a while. This should help to boost temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Freeze Watch Monday night - Tuesday morning: Surface high will be more centered over the area with a clear sky and light wind Monday night. We should again see temperatures dip into the mid to upper 20s for lows and we have issued a freeze watch for Monday night into Tuesday morning. We should see some low level warm advection as the high shifts to the east on Tuesday. The low level warm advection will strengthen on Wednesday ahead of quick moving upper level system and we should see temperatures respond back into the 70s by Wednesday across the area. The upper level system and surface front will push through Wednesday night into Thursday and will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Severe storms are not expected with this system at this time. Friday looks to be cooler as the surface high builds into the area, but we should warm back up over the weekend with upper ridging building into the area along with low level warm advection. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Northeasterly winds around 10 kts continue into the evening, perhaps an isolated gust to 15-20 kts (especially furthest south). Overnight, winds become light and variable. Light and showery precip is floating across the region, though a dry air mass is preventing much from reaching the ground, especially north of TAF sites. Showers will linger across the Ozarks into the evening, with predominantly frozen p-types that begin melting below 2000ft. Flight conditions are expected to remain VFR, but brief MVFR conditions are possible under the higher-intensity showers. Generally, regional ceilings are VFR, but will amend if trends/obs indicate deterioration becoming more likely (most likely site of the 3 to be impacted would be BBG). && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Camden