AWIO20 FMEE 061123
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2025/04/06 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY

NIL.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

Convective activity is rather weak across most of the basin and there is currently no well-defined ITCZ pattern. 

A weak low-level cyclonic vortex is present over the east of the basin near 10.5S/88.5E, but has no associated deep convection. Conditions should remain unconducive for its development over the next few days as it drifts westwards (dry environment and lack of equatorial convergence).



Development of a tropical storm is not expected for the next 5 days.



NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.