AXAU03 APRF 120709 IDW27800 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE AT: 0708 UTC 12/02/2025 NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE TALIAH IDENTIFIER: 14U DATA AT: 0600 UTC LATITUDE: 17.7S LONGITUDE: 90.6E LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 20NM (35 KM) MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH SOUTHWEST (199 DEG) SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 10 KNOTS (19 KM/H) MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 60 KNOTS (110 KM/H) MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 85 KNOTS (155 KM/H) CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 180 NM (335 KM) RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 200 NM (370 KM) RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 180 NM (335 KM) RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 100 NM (185 KM) RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 70 NM (130 KM) RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 120 NM (220 KM) RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 100 NM (185 KM) RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 70 NM (130 KM) RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS: NM ( KM) RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 60 NM (110 KM) DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1004 HPA RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 240 NM (445 KM) FORECAST DATA DATE/TIME : LOCATION : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND : CENTRAL PRESSURE (UTC) : DEGREES : NM (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA +06: 12/1200: 18.9S 89.9E: 035 (060): 060 (110): 976 +12: 12/1800: 19.8S 89.1E: 040 (075): 060 (110): 976 +18: 13/0000: 20.7S 88.3E: 050 (090): 060 (110): 976 +24: 13/0600: 21.5S 87.3E: 055 (100): 055 (100): 979 +36: 13/1800: 22.7S 85.8E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 982 +48: 14/0600: 23.5S 84.6E: 075 (140): 045 (085): 986 +60: 14/1800: 24.0S 83.8E: 090 (170): 045 (085): 985 +72: 15/0600: 24.6S 83.0E: 110 (210): 045 (085): 986 +96: 16/0600: 26.5S 80.3E: 175 (325): 045 (085): 986 +120: 17/0600: 29.3S 78.2E: 215 (395): 045 (085): 984 REMARKS: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TALIAH IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION. INCREASED BANDING MAY RESULT IN AN EYE RE-FORMING OVERNIGHT. INTENSITY REMAINS IS SET AT 60 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK ANALYSIS REMAINING STEADY AND CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER AMSR2 AND SAR WIND ANALYSES. DVORAK ANALYSIS: DT AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS=4.0 BASED EARLIER ON RAGGED ELONGATED EYE (OW SURROUND, WMG/OW EYE TEMPERATURE) AND MORE RECENTLY A CURVED BAND IN VIS OF 1.1. MET=3.5 FROM D-/24H, PAT=3.5, FT/CI OF 4.0 BASED ON DT. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AIDS AT 0600 UTC; ADT 37KN, AIDT 55KN, D-PRINT 51KN, DMINT (2358 UTC) 55 KN, SATCON (0330 UTC) 56KN (ALL 1 MIN MEAN). TALIAH HAS QUITE A LARGE WIND FIELD, AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS EXPANDED TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES. AS A RESULT, IT MAY REACT SLOWER THAN USUAL TO ANY CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 27 TO 28C, DECREASING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND DROPPING BELOW 26C AT ABOUT 23-25 DEGREES SOUTH. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH, SUPPLIED BY TROPICAL FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF TALIAH. WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LOW AS TALIAH LIES IN AN UPPER RIDGE AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH, HOWEVER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THIS UPPER TROUGH RELAXES AND ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH MAY IMPROVE THE UPPER OUTFLOW AND PREVENT WEAKENING. TALIAH IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. TALIAH HAS BEEN STEERED SLOWLY WEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWEST ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN TALIAH MOVING FASTER TO THE SOUTHWEST. TALIAH IS FORECAST TO LEAVE THE AUSTRALIAN REGION (090E) LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE LAST TECHNICAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, WITH RESPONSIBILITY BEING HANDED OVER TO RSMC LA REUNION. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA == THERE WILL BE NO FURTHER BULLETINS FOR THIS SYSTEM FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY.=