AXPZ20 KNHC 070122
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Apr 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure has begun to 
surge southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of 
Mexico in the wake of a strong late-season Gulf of Mexico cold 
front. The resultant tight gradient is expected to lead to strong
northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec later tonight, rapidly
increasing to minimal gale-force early on Mon, then increasing 
to strong gale force by early Mon evening. Seas are expected to 
build to a peak of around 12 ft Mon afternoon, then 14 ft Mon
night as the leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas reaches to 
near 14N95W. The gale conditions are expected to continue through
Wed morning. Gale conditions are possible again late in the 
week and into next weekend. Please refer to the the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near the border of Panama and 
Colombia at 08N78W to 09N87W to 08N92W to 12N96W. A short ITCZ
segment is analyzed from 03N90W to 02N102W, where a surface 
trough interrupts along a position from 10N105W to 06N116W to
01N121W. A southern ITCZ segment extends from 01S110W to beyond
03S120W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted on satellite 
imagery from 01N to 09N between 77W and 91W, from 04N to 11N 
between 100W and 110W, and from 01S to 03.4S between 114W and 
120W, with numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 06N 
to 10N between 110W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning.

High pressure is present over the waters west of Mexico as a 
trough is analyzed just inland Mexico north of Mazatlan. The 
resultant gradient is allowing for generally fresh to strong
northwest to north winds in the central and southern Gulf of
California and just offshore Cabo San Lucas. Winds are gentle to
moderate in the northern of Gulf of California. Moderate to 
fresh northwest to north winds are elsewhere from offshore Cabo 
Corrientes west and northwestward. Gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds are elsewhere offshore southern Mexico around 
the ridge which extends across the waters from the high. Seas are
mainly 4 to 6 ft in mainly old northwest swell, locally to 7 ft
near the entrance to the Gulf of California near the fresh to
strong winds there, and except mixed with southerly swell
offshore southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds 
will continue across the Baja California waters and offshore of 
southwestern Mexico through Mon afternoon, except through early 
Wed afternoon over the waters offshore Baja California as high 
pressure remains west of the area. Pulsing fresh to strong NW 
winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of California
through Mon as the pressure gradient strengthens between high 
pressure to the west and troughing over western Mexico. Strong N 
winds will develop later tonight in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region north of 14N before quickly strengthening to gale-force 
early Mon. They are are expected to continue through Wed morning 
before possibly developing again Fri and Fri night into next
weekend. Elsewhere, a new set of NW swell will induce rough seas
across the Baja California waters Mon through Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient across the offshore waters has loosened
during the past several hours allowing for mainly gentle variable
winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the Papagayo region due to early
stronger winds there. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft in mixed SW and
NW swell elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft offshore eastern Panama and
Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are again expected in the 
Gulf of Papagayo region beginning Wed, except pulsing to strong 
speeds at night starting Wed night as high pressure in the wake 
of a Gulf of America cold front builds N of the region. Large NW 
swell will begin to impact the outer waters of Guatemala late Mon
through Wed as a Tehuantepec gale event develops. Elsewhere, 
mixed SW and NW swell will maintain moderate seas between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands through the early part of the week, 
with new SW swell reaching the Galapagos Islands by the middle of
the week. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds are 
expected across the remainder of the waters, along with slight to
moderate seas. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A weak stationary front that was over the NW waters has become a
remnant trough reaching from 30N136.5W to 28N140W. The leading
edge of a previously associated set of NW swell has outrun this
feature now far off to the southeast, with seas of rough or
greater reaching west of a line from 30N126W to 09N136W, with
seas of 12 to 14 ft west of a line from 30N131W to 27N132W to
18N140W. Meanwhile, winds west of the boundary have diminished 
to moderate while mainly gentle anticyclonic winds are elsewhere
north of 25N and west of 125W under a weak high centered near 
29N130W. To the south, a surface trough is analyzed north of the 
ITCZ from 10N105W to 06N116W to 01N121W. The pressure gradient 
between northwest of the trough and north of roughly 04N to 25N 
and west of 118W is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades 
with seas of 6 to 9 ft there. Across the remainder of the open 
waters, winds are mainly light to gentle with seas of 4 to 7 ft 
in mixed southerly and northerly swells.

For the forecast, rough seas from the aforementioned NW swell
will propagate southeastward reaching the waters west of a line 
from 30N117W to 15N124W to 07N132W to 04N140W by early Mon
evening. Seas with this NW swell will lower to below 12 ft on 
Mon night. The moderate to fresh NE to E winds will diminish to 
gentle to moderate speeds on Wed. Seas with these winds will 
subside from north to south from Wed through Thu night. Another 
front may move into the northwest part of the area Wed night into
Thu along with seas of 7 to around 10 ft in long-period NW swell
that will be following it. Meanwhile, long-period southern 
hemisphere swell will promote rough seas south of about 05N 
starting on Tue. Guidance indicates that the swell will 
gradually subside late in the week after its eastern portion 
merges with swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gale event. Looking ahead, winds may freshen again west of 130W
late Fri into next weekend as high pressure builds across the
region there.

$$
Lewitsky