AXPZ20 KNHC 070824
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Apr 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is surging
southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains of Mexico in
the wake of a strong late-season Gulf of Mexico cold front which
is pushing across the area of the Chivela Pass. The resultant 
tight gradient has allowed fresh to strong northerly winds to
commence in the past few hours in the immediate Gulf of
Tehuantepec. These winds are forecast to rapidly increase to 
minimal gale-force by mid-morning Mon, then increasing to strong
gale-force tonight. Seas are expected to build to a peak of 
around 12 ft this afternoon, then 14 ft late tonight as the 
leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas reaches to near 14N95W. The
gale conditions are expected to continue through Wed morning.
Winds will continue to be at least near gale-force Wed afternoon
into Thu night. Gale conditions are possible again late in the 
week and into next weekend. Please refer to the the latest High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from Panama near 09N78.5W to 03.5N90W. 
An ITCZ extends from there at 03.5N90W to beyond 03.4S120W. A
small northern ITCZ segment is analyzed from 09N103W to 04N120W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted on satellite 
imagery from 02S to 03.4S between 91W and 93W, from 00N to 04N 
between 93W and 101W, from 02S to 03S between 106W and 108.5W, 
and from 05N to 10N between 107W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning as well as gale
conditions possible later in the week and into next weekend.

High pressure is present over the waters west of Mexico as a 
trough is analyzed just inland Mexico east of the Gulf of
California. The resultant gradient is allowing for generally 
fresh to strong northwest to north winds in the central and 
southern Gulf of California per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. 
Winds are gentle to moderate in the northern of Gulf of 
California per the same ASCAT pass. Moderate to locally fresh 
northwest to north winds are elsewhere from offshore Cabo 
Corrientes west and northwestward. Gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds are elsewhere offshore southern Mexico around 
the ridge which extends across the waters from the high, except
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where a northerly gap wind event has
commenced as described in the Special Features section above. 
Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in mainly old northwest swell, locally 
to 7 ft in the central and southern Gulf of California, and 
except mixed with southerly swell offshore southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds 
will continue across the Baja California waters and offshore of 
southwestern Mexico through this afternoon as high pressure 
remains west of the area. Pulsing fresh to strong NW winds are 
expected in the central and southern Gulf of California through 
this morning. Strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
north of 14N early this morning will quickly strengthen to gale-
force by mid-morning. They are are expected to continue through
at least Wed morning before possibly developing again Thu night 
into next weekend. Winds will continue to be at least near
gale-force Wed afternoon into Thu night. Elsewhere, a new set of
NW swell will induce rough seas across the Baja California 
waters Mon through Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient over the Papagayo region is supporting a
plume of moderate to fresh winds offshore to near 88.5W. Mainly
light to gentle variable winds are found elsewhere, locally
moderate southwest of the Galapagos Islands where the pressure
gradient is tighter. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft across the
offshore waters, except to 6 ft southwest of the Galapagos
Islands, and 2 to 4 ft offshore Colombia and eastern Panama.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in
the Papagayo region through tonight, then pulse to fresh to 
strong mainly at night and early morning thereafter as high 
pressure in the wake of a Gulf of America cold front builds north 
of the region. Seas may build to rough with these winds starting
early Thu. Large NW swell will begin to impact the outer waters 
of Guatemala later today through Wed as a Tehuantepec gale event 
develops, then again possibly Fri night into next weekend. 
Elsewhere, mixed SW and NW swell will maintain moderate seas 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the early part 
of the week, with new SW swell reaching the Galapagos Islands by 
the middle of the week building seas to around rough. Otherwise,
gentle to locally moderate winds are expected across the 
remainder of the waters, along with slight to moderate seas, 
except moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A weak stationary front that was over the NW waters has become a
remnant trough reaching from 30N134W to 27N140W. The leading 
edge of a previously associated set of NW swell has outrun this 
feature now far off to the southeast, with seas of rough or 
greater reaching west of a line from 30N123W to 15N130W to 09N140W,
with seas of 12 to 13 ft west of a line from 30N130W to 27N132W 
to 16.5N140W. Meanwhile, winds west of the boundary have 
diminished to moderate per recent ASCAT data, while mainly 
gentle anticyclonic winds are elsewhere north of 25N and west of 
125W under a weak and broad high centered around 29N132W. To the
south, the pressure gradient between the northern ITCZ segment 
and north of roughly 07N to 21N and west of 113W is supporting 
fresh to locally strong trades as seen by ASCAT, with moderate to
fresh winds elsewhere from 04N to 25N to the west of 110W, along
with 6 to 9 ft seas, highest just northwest of the ITCZ segment.
Across the remainder of the open waters, winds are mainly light 
to gentle with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed southerly and northerly
swells.

For the forecast, rough seas from the aforementioned NW swell
will propagate southeastward reaching the waters west of a line 
from 30N117W to 15N124W to 07N132W to 04N140W by early this
evening. Seas with this NW swell will subside to below 12 ft on 
tonight. The moderate to fresh, locally strong, NE to E winds 
will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Wed. Seas with 
these winds will subside from north to south from Wed through Thu
night. Another front may move into the northwest part of the 
area Wed night into Thu along with seas of 7 to around 10 ft in 
long-period NW swell that will be following it. Meanwhile, long-
period southern hemisphere swell will promote rough seas south 
of about 05N starting on Tue. Guidance indicates that the swell 
will gradually subside late in the week after its eastern portion
merges with swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec 
gale event. Looking ahead, winds may freshen again west of 130W 
late Fri into next weekend as high pressure builds across the 
region there.

$$
Lewitsky