FOCN45 CWWG 071200
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:00 AM CDT MONDAY APRIL
7 2025.

ALERTS IN EFFECT...NONE.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...ALOFT, A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES OVER
CANADA WITH A UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING WESTERN CANADA, INCLUDING THE
WESTERN ARCTIC. A LONGWAVE TROUGH SITS OVER ONTARIO WITH AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OFF THE EAST COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM ALASKA TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE, A 993 LOW SITS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NWT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PRAIRIES. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND CONNECTS TO A 991 MB LOW OVER LABRADOR. A 1030 MB HIGH
SITS OVER THE KIVALLIQ WITH A RIDGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MANITOBA. A 997
MB LOW IS OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PROVINCE.

DISCUSSION...

AB...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE SET TO CROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER AND
CENTRAL ALBERTA RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND CAUSE SOME
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS. IN COMBINATION WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILTY DUE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, THE LATTER SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE OF
TRIGGERING A THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO OVER THE ELBOW REGION OF ALBERTA
TODAY. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
ALBERTA TONIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT THE ROCKIES
THANKS TO INSTABILITY AND THEN HYDROMETEOR DRIFT OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. OTHERWISE WE'RE LOOKING AT A WARM, PERHAPS IN SOME CASES
RECORD WARM, DAY FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PROVINCE.

SK/MB...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE EAST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEK AS A
NEW UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER WESTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ALBERTA LOW WILL BRING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO SASKATCHEWAN ON
TUESDAY AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA BEFORE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM THROUGH THE
DAY.

GREAT SLAVE/MACKENZIE...A LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARDS (FROM THE
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE IN THE AB DISCUSSION) IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOSTLY
SHOWERS TO THE GREAT SLAVE LAKE AREA BUT THERE'S A RISK OF FREEZING
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME WE BELIEVE THE
RISK IS SLIGHT ENOUGH THAT WARNINGS WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

WESTERN/NORTHERN ARCTIC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING SOME
SNOW, LIKELY ABOUT 2 TO 4 CENTIMETRES, AND STRONG WINDS TO SEVERAL
COMMUNITIES IN THE WESTERN ARCTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GOOD BLOWING SNOW OR EVEN BLIZZARD POTENTIAL
BUT THIS KIND OF COMBINATION OF WIND, SNOW AND TEMPERATURES, ALONG
WITH CLIMATOLOGY, SUGGGESTS THAT IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH, WITH
GENERALLY WET ENOUGH SNOW, THAT BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL NOT BE MET,
THOUGH THERE IS SOME MENTIONS OF BLOWING SNOW IN FORECAST FOR
CAMBRIDGE BAY AND ULUKAHAKTOK. RESOLUTE MIGHT PROVE MORE FERTILE
TERRAIN FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE'S
UNCERTAINTY HERE.

EASTERN ARCTIC...THE LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY INTO THE LABRADOR SEA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHUNT NORTH
INTO DAVIS STRAIT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS IT WILL BEGIN TO DRAG MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO SOME
COMMUNITIES MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER SOUTHERN BAFFIN, BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY. FURTHER ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-WARNING.

END/STAMMERS/BATE