NZUS93 KTOP 181926 LLLTOP KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-190726- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Topeka KS 226 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 . KEY MESSAGES… - Potent low pressure system to bring strong winds along with snow/blowing snow to parts of central KS tonight through Wed. Blizzard conditions possible for locations along and especially north of I-70. - Strong winds and low RH’s will keep fire danger in place tonight across much of the area. - Quieter weather expected after Wed with a return to more seasonal temps. .DISCUSSION… Water vapor imagery shows upper trough digging across the Eastern Great Bain and approaching the Central Rockies. At the surface, lee troughing is strengthening with a cold front extending from central IA across the KS/Nebraska border. By 06z this evening, main vort lobe associated with upper trough will be tracking across the OK/TX Panhandle and across northeast KS by 12z Wed. In response, surface low will track from Western KS into far northeast KS by 12z Wed. As far as snow goes, this system will have more of the classic deformation zone snow with the big question how far south the accumulating snow makes it. The NAM came in further south with the snow compared to the GFS with the NAM having some support from the ECMWF. So it’s not out of the question that locations as far as Highway 50 may see some reductions in vis due to a period of moderate snow and very high winds. Did go ahead and add a couple more counties into the Blizzard warning with a winter advisory south of the blizzard warning. Snow is expected to come to an end across the forecast area in the 18-21z time frame as this system quickly lifts off to the northeast. As far as winds go, confidence remains high that are a looking for low end warning criteria for at least areas along and west of I-135 with slightly lighter winds over southeast KS. Unlike Friday’s system, this one will not have the benefit of extremely deep mixing, so most of the extreme winds will be due to gradient winds. However, still feel 60mph gusts are likely across most of central and south central KS late tonight into Wed morning. By 12z Thu, upper trough will be moving into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley with another upper impulse tracking from the Northern Rockies and into the Central Plains by Fri morning. This feature is expected to remain far enough north to limit precip chances. Behind this wave, upper pattern will flatten out for the Fri night through Sat time frame and will allow for above normal temps for Sat. Pattern will remain very progressive with yet another shortwave trough set to swing across the Northern/Central Plains Sat night into Sun morning. While this feature may bring a few showers and storms to mainly Eastern KS Sat night, not looking for a significant event. For the start of next work week, there is good model agreement in strong northwest flow aloft in place which should allow for seasonal to above normal temps and dry conditions. .FIRE WEATHER… Dangerous fire weather conditions to continue through the overnight time frame. Very strong northwest winds will start to overspread the area generally after 06z and after 09z for South Central KS. We are still looking for max wind gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range with a few higher gusts possible along and west of I-135. Before the colder air moves-in early Wed morning, we are still looking at RH values across south central KS into the Flint Hills in the 15-20% range. So very high to extreme fire danger will remain through most of the overnight hours across south central and southeast KS.