WTIN20 DEMS 060600 REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 06.04.2025 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT 0700 UTC OF 06.04.2025 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 06.04.2025. BAY OF BENGAL: Yesterday\u2019s upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood persisted over the same region extending upto 5.8 km above mean sea level at 0300 UTC of today, the 06 th April, 2025. Under its influence, a Low Pressure Area is likely to form over south Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours. Scattered to broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over south Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea (minimum CTT minus 75 0C). Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded weak to moderate convection lay over north & central Bay of Bengal. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY ARABIAN SEA: Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded weak to moderate convection lay over eastcentral & southeast Arabian Sea off Karnataka-Kerala coasts and Comorin area. *PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 168 HRS: 24 24-48 48-72 72-96 96-120 120-144 144-168 HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS HOURS NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL *NOTE: EVERY 24HR FORECAST IS VALID UPTO 0300 UTC (0830 IST) OF NEXT DAY REMARKS: Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in phase 7 with amplitude less than 1. It is predicted to move across phases 2 & 3 during next 3-4 days and across phases 4 & 5 during subsequent 3-4 days with amplitude less than 1. Thus, MJO is likely to support enhancement of convective activity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) during next 7 days. The NCICS CFS model forecast indicates westerly wind anomaly (3-5 mps) over south Bay of Bengal (BoB) with approaching MJO from west and easterly wind anomaly over north Andaman Sea and adjoining eastcentral BoB during 6th-7th April. Thereafter during 8th 13th April, the model is indicating enhanced westerly wind anomaly (5-7 mps), MJO, Equatorial Rossby wave (ERW), Kelvin wave (KW) over south BoB and easterly wind anomaly over north BoB. The sea surface temperature is 29-30 0C over the south BoB and tropical cyclone heat potential is 120-150 KJ/cm2 . Thus, MJO, Equatorial waves and sea conditions are favourable for formation of low pressure area over the BoB. Most of the numerical models are indicating the existing cyclonic circulation over southeast BoB to move west-northwestwards during next 3-4 days without any significant intensification. However, ECMWF is indicating development of a low pressure area over southwest BoB around 8th April. Considering all the above, a Low Pressure Area is likely to form over south Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours. Continuous watch is being maintained to monitor further movement and intensification of the existing cyclonic circulation over southeast BoB.