WTPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (PABUK) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (PABUK) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 110.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 110.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 8.3N 109.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 7.6N 106.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 110.0E.
25DEC24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
224 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED AND
DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WHILE THE SIX-HOUR MOTION VECTOR
IS 200 DEGREES, THE ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THAT IN THE LAST THREE HOURS OR
SO, THE LLCC HAS TRACKED DUE SOUTH, ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A TONGUE
OF 20-25KT WINDS WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM TO ROUGHLY NA
TRANG, BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ARC OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER IS WHAT IS DRIVING TD
28W SOUTHWARD, CONTRARY TO ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS. MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN AN ARC TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER (FROM A SHIP, HUYAN TRAN AND TRUANG
SA) SHOW WESTERLY WINDS, CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT DEPICTION OF
THE WIND FIELD. THE COASTALLY TRAPPED SURGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WHICH WILL ALLOW TD 28W TO TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY ENGULFED BY VERY DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXCEEDS 30 KNOTS, RESULTING IN AN
EXTREMELY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THE SYSTEM HAS ZERO CHANCE TO
REDEVELOP. THE REMNANT VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN FULLY DISSIPATE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MEKONG DELTA REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 11 FEET.
//
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