WTPN51 PGTW 250900 WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 241225070347 2024122506 28W PABUK 012 01 200 11 SATL 030 T000 096N 1103E 025 T012 083N 1090E 020 T024 076N 1069E 020 AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (PABUK) WARNING NR 012 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (PABUK) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 250600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 110.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 110.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 8.3N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 7.6N 106.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 250900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 110.0E. 25DEC24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED AND DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WHILE THE SIX-HOUR MOTION VECTOR IS 200 DEGREES, THE ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THAT IN THE LAST THREE HOURS OR SO, THE LLCC HAS TRACKED DUE SOUTH, ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A TONGUE OF 20-25KT WINDS WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM TO ROUGHLY NA TRANG, BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ARC OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSESSED CENTER IS WHAT IS DRIVING TD 28W SOUTHWARD, CONTRARY TO ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS. MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN AN ARC TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER (FROM A SHIP, HUYAN TRAN AND TRUANG SA) SHOW WESTERLY WINDS, CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT DEPICTION OF THE WIND FIELD. THE COASTALLY TRAPPED SURGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, WHICH WILL ALLOW TD 28W TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY ENGULFED BY VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXCEEDS 30 KNOTS, RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THE SYSTEM HAS ZERO CHANCE TO REDEVELOP. THE REMNANT VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN FULLY DISSIPATE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEKONG DELTA REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 11 FEET. // 2824122100 89N1173E 15 2824122106 91N1166E 15 2824122112 93N1159E 15 2824122118 95N1152E 15 2824122200 97N1146E 20 2824122206 99N1140E 25 2824122212 101N1136E 25 2824122218 104N1133E 30 2824122300 107N1130E 30 2824122306 110N1128E 30 2824122312 114N1127E 25 2824122318 117N1123E 30 2824122400 115N1123E 30 2824122406 118N1119E 30 2824122412 114N1116E 30 2824122418 111N1112E 30 2824122500 106N1107E 25 2824122506 96N1103E 25 NNNN