WTPS11 NFFN 251200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 251446 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [RAY] CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2S
177.8W AT 251200 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-9 IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE
MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND THE LLCC IS NOW
PARTIALLY EXPOSED.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF HIGH OR STRONG NORTHWEST SHEAR WITH GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE CYCLONE LIES
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTRIPOCAL RIDGE AND IS BEING
STEERED SOUTH SOUTHEAST. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS.
 
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE SOUTH WHILE TRANSITIONING IT TO AN
EXTRA TROPICAL LOW.

DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH SHEAR PATTERN YEILDS DT=2.0,MET=2.5,AND PT 2.0.
FT BASED ON MET THUS, YIELDING T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 26.2S 175.5W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 28.1S 172.0W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE


THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RAE [RAY]
THAT WILL BE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI.