WTPS12 NFFN 270900
PART 1 OF 2
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
FEB 271001 UTC.

EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE SERU [SEH-ROO] CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.4S 171.1E AT 270900 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI
EIRIMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. 


DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED AND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH LLCC
FULLY EXPOSED. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE SUPPOSED LLCC LIES IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING
UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. EX-TC SERU CONTINUES TO
BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH SHEAR, DRY AIR AND COOLER SSTS AS IT MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS.
 
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE EX-TC SERU SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH VERY LOW CHANCE OF
INTENSIFICATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN WHERE SUPPOSED LLCC IS
SHEARED MORE THAN 80 NM FROM STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDING DT
OF 1.5, MET=2.0 AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON MET, THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 272100 UTC 23.0S 171.8E MOV SE AT 04 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280900 UTC 23.3S 172.4E MOV ESE AT 03 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 282100 UTC 23.4S 173.1E MOV E AT 03 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010900 UTC 23.2S 173.5E MOV NE AT 02 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE