WTPS51 PGTW 080300 WARNING ATCG MIL 18P SWP 250308014425 2025030800 18P ALFRED 030 01 360 03 SATL RADR SYNP 030 T000 270S 1533E 035 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD T012 268S 1523E 030 AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED) WARNING NR 030 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 27.0S 153.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 153.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 26.8S 152.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 153.0E. 08MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (ALFRED), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 39 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TC 18P WITH A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS REMAINING SUPPORTIVE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS SHEARED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST DUE TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 40-45 KTS, WHILE THE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD INTERACTS WITH COASTAL BRISBANE TO THE WEST AND MORETON ISLAND TO THE EAST. AFTER TC 18P MAKES LANDFALL, FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECASTED AS THE LLCC ENCOUNTERS ENHANCED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS THROUGH LAND INTERACTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, INDICATING THE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MORETON BAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 072304Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWING TWO ISOLATED AREAS OF 35 KTS INTENSITIES IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE BROADER SURFACE TURNING. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 18 FEET. // 1825022000 120S1471E 20 1825022006 125S1477E 20 1825022012 130S1481E 25 1825022018 135S1484E 25 1825022100 142S1486E 25 1825022106 146S1491E 25 1825022112 148S1494E 30 1825022118 149S1495E 30 1825022200 150S1496E 30 1825022206 149S1500E 35 1825022212 144S1506E 40 1825022218 140S1512E 40 1825022300 140S1518E 50 1825022300 140S1518E 50 1825022306 147S1525E 50 1825022306 147S1525E 50 1825022312 142S1537E 55 1825022312 142S1537E 55 1825022318 141S1538E 55 1825022318 141S1538E 55 1825022400 138S1540E 60 1825022400 138S1540E 60 1825022406 137S1543E 55 1825022406 137S1543E 55 1825022412 138S1545E 55 1825022412 138S1545E 55 1825022418 141S1546E 60 1825022418 141S1546E 60 1825022500 144S1545E 65 1825022500 144S1545E 65 1825022500 144S1545E 65 1825022506 142S1544E 70 1825022506 142S1544E 70 1825022506 142S1544E 70 1825022509 141S1548E 70 1825022509 141S1548E 70 1825022509 141S1548E 70 1825022512 143S1550E 75 1825022512 143S1550E 75 1825022512 143S1550E 75 1825022518 146S1549E 75 1825022518 146S1549E 75 1825022518 146S1549E 75 1825022600 149S1550E 80 1825022600 149S1550E 80 1825022600 149S1550E 80 1825022606 152S1552E 80 1825022606 152S1552E 80 1825022606 152S1552E 80 1825022612 156S1554E 85 1825022612 156S1554E 85 1825022612 156S1554E 85 1825022618 161S1554E 90 1825022618 161S1554E 90 1825022618 161S1554E 90 1825022700 168S1554E 95 1825022700 168S1554E 95 1825022700 168S1554E 95 1825022706 175S1554E 110 1825022706 175S1554E 110 1825022706 175S1554E 110 1825022712 178S1557E 115 1825022712 178S1557E 115 1825022712 178S1557E 115 1825022718 184S1556E 95 1825022718 184S1556E 95 1825022718 184S1556E 95 1825022800 191S1555E 105 1825022800 191S1555E 105 1825022800 191S1555E 105 1825022806 200S1559E 105 1825022806 200S1559E 105 1825022806 200S1559E 105 1825022812 204S1557E 105 1825022812 204S1557E 105 1825022812 204S1557E 105 1825022818 207S1556E 100 1825022818 207S1556E 100 1825022818 207S1556E 100 1825030100 215S1555E 95 1825030100 215S1555E 95 1825030100 215S1555E 95 1825030106 218S1554E 80 1825030106 218S1554E 80 1825030106 218S1554E 80 1825030112 221S1554E 65 1825030112 221S1554E 65 1825030112 221S1554E 65 1825030118 227S1554E 55 1825030118 227S1554E 55 1825030200 234S1555E 55 1825030200 234S1555E 55 1825030206 239S1558E 55 1825030206 239S1558E 55 1825030212 245S1562E 55 1825030212 245S1562E 55 1825030218 250S1566E 55 1825030218 250S1566E 55 1825030300 258S1572E 50 1825030300 258S1572E 50 1825030306 263S1577E 50 1825030312 267S1582E 50 1825030312 267S1582E 50 1825030318 270S1586E 55 1825030318 270S1586E 55 1825030400 273S1594E 55 1825030400 273S1594E 55 1825030406 281S1591E 60 1825030406 281S1591E 60 1825030412 278S1583E 60 1825030412 278S1583E 60 1825030418 281S1575E 55 1825030418 281S1575E 55 1825030500 276S1564E 55 1825030500 276S1564E 55 1825030506 273S1565E 55 1825030506 273S1565E 55 1825030512 273S1567E 55 1825030512 273S1567E 55 1825030518 275S1562E 55 1825030518 275S1562E 55 1825030600 273S1557E 55 1825030600 273S1557E 55 1825030606 272S1554E 50 1825030606 272S1554E 50 1825030612 273S1551E 50 1825030612 273S1551E 50 1825030618 274S1549E 45 1825030700 276S1545E 45 1825030706 277S1541E 45 1825030712 275S1537E 45 1825030718 273S1533E 35 1825030800 270S1533E 35 NNNN